Crude Oil Prices Jump 2% Attempts Recovery After Months of Downtrend
Updated on: 14 November 2025
Category: Global Oil Market News & Chart Analysis
Crude oil prices, which have been falling continuously since June 2025, finally showed some strength today. After months of a clear downtrend, prices are now steady and trying to move upward, supported by two major global developments.
A Ukrainian drone strike damaged a major Russian oil depot located at a Black Sea port, raising fresh concerns about global supply. At the same time, the reopening of the U.S. government after a nearly 43-day shutdown boosted market sentiment, as traders expect fuel demand in the United States to improve.
These events together pushed oil prices higher by almost 2%, giving the market a short-term positive direction.
Ukraine Strike Damages Russian Oil Depot: Supply Fears Return
Russia is one of the biggest oil exporters in the world. Any disturbance in its supply chain instantly creates tension in the global market.
The recent drone strike by Ukraine caused severe damage to a large oil storage facility at Russia’s Black Sea port. The impact of this incident is significant:
- Short-term disruption in oil supply
- Delays in transportation and export routes
- Temporary slowdown in refinery operations
- Possible reduction in supply to Europe and parts of Asia
Because the market was already weak for months, this sudden supply concern acted as a strong trigger. Traders reacted quickly, and crude oil prices bounced back sharply.
U.S. Government Reopens After 43 Days: Demand Outlook Improves
Another positive factor for the oil market is the reopening of the U.S. government.
For nearly 43 days, administrative and economic activities were slowed due to the shutdown.
With the government now back in operation:
- Federal employees have returned to work
- Travel and transportation activities are expected to rise
- Businesses and industries will regain momentum
- Overall fuel consumption may increase
Because the U.S. is the world’s largest oil consumer, even a small improvement in demand expectations can strengthen crude prices.
This reopening has provided confidence to traders, helping crude oil break its recent weakness.
Market Trend Since June 2025: A Clear Downtrend
It is important to note that crude oil prices have been falling steadily since June 2025.
The reasons include:
- Slow global economic growth
- Lower demand from China
- High inventories in the U.S.
- Strong U.S. dollar
- Geopolitical uncertainty
From June to early November, prices dropped multiple times from major resistance levels.
Today’s bounce is the first strong positive sign after several months of continuous declines.
Crude Oil Chart Analysis — Daily Time Frame
(Here you can insert your TradingView chart image with support and resistance levels.)
🔽 Major Support Zone: 5100 – 5000
This zone continues to act as a strong base. Buyers become active whenever prices fall near this range.
🔼 Resistance-1: 5515
The first hurdle for crude.
A breakout above 5515 could attract more buyers.
🎯 First Short-Term Target: 5650
If crude closes above Resistance-1, the next move can be towards 5650.
🎯 Second Target: 5760
Historically, prices have struggled around 5760.
A breakout above this will show real strength.
🎯 Third Target: 6000
A major psychological and technical resistance.
If geopolitical tensions rise or demand improves, crude may move toward this level.
Major Long-Term Resistance: 6520 – 6580
This is the strongest resistance zone on the chart.
Crude has corrected heavily from this level in the past.
Current Market View: Attempting a Trend Reversal?
After months of steady decline since June 2025, crude oil is now showing the first signs of recovery.
The combination of:
- Russian supply disruption
- Improved U.S. demand outlook
- Strong support at 5100–5000
has helped crude stabilize and attempt an upward move. If crude holds above 5515 in the coming days, a short-term rally towards 5650 → 5760 → 6000 is possible.
FAQs
1. Why did crude oil prices rise suddenly today?
Because a Ukrainian drone strike damaged a major Russian oil depot, creating supply concerns.
2. How does the U.S. government reopening affect oil prices?
It improves economic activity and fuel demand expectations, which helps crude oil prices rise.
3. Are crude oil prices reversing the long downtrend?
It is too early to confirm a full reversal, but today’s strong bounce shows the first positive signs after months of decline.